Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 83688.280985 88313.515400 92934.980687 97895.876839 103067.037670 108295.118688 113976.883762
2024-12-15 76718.584843 83852.314317 91176.751146 99248.700677 107884.240245 116835.209748 126803.857305
2024-12-22 70623.204852 79391.618943 88591.383873 98941.988917 110241.222058 122179.808867 135725.531734
2024-12-29 67167.220607 77283.318887 88087.742428 100450.490195 114168.272471 128886.382522 145834.452493
2025-01-05 64007.340327 75175.828584 87292.445417 101362.109296 117195.938331 134409.890769 154483.590420
2025-01-12 60793.131270 72760.892746 85931.953761 101431.837883 119098.964234 138534.456303 161455.065015
2025-01-19 57844.813754 70458.234742 84525.395817 101284.866434 120611.829048 142103.268152 167707.765716
2025-01-26 56405.913908 69786.020454 84884.758429 103069.321286 124255.023291 148035.223661 176617.658460
2025-02-02 55105.586563 69184.214720 85247.184874 104789.474336 127773.646683 153796.692049 185329.604114
2025-02-09 53404.219477 68015.877921 84866.934648 105569.803415 130142.520153 158196.301053 192454.759579
2025-02-16 51348.344669 66330.995513 83793.796282 105455.454690 131396.737798 161253.307825 197988.478833
2025-02-23 49777.306763 65164.546566 83277.878348 105949.009668 133325.414744 165070.330325 204400.731456
2025-03-02 47997.553180 63705.203184 82385.647236 105982.521841 134718.994766 168295.282009 210187.809516
2025-03-09 46988.444221 63163.035308 82580.609227 107316.127501 137672.821014 173388.191283 218234.049171
2025-03-16 45204.799774 61584.507021 81443.771201 106966.015711 138541.437923 175958.287029 223251.086038
2025-03-23 44481.645517 61315.868478 81903.728635 108566.553608 141784.565052 181393.188180 231741.600185
2025-03-30 43507.156825 60685.789119 81878.181816 109535.612503 144233.524379 185862.635976 239077.845211
2025-04-06 42174.545095 59546.274729 81168.658575 109609.566553 145544.116743 188927.351858 244701.245907
2025-04-13 40809.564180 58319.324058 80306.877335 109453.105241 146536.449083 191582.026740 249816.087356
2025-04-20 40425.793480 58366.947425 81065.550403 111351.917959 150112.693993 197438.848784 258906.767508
2025-04-27 40035.869098 58387.515414 81775.849773 113181.938265 153605.272679 203207.840052 267922.689872
2025-05-04 39243.020433 57840.380026 81724.835225 114011.987535 155817.384019 207382.848049 274973.851883
2025-05-11 38092.056690 56774.294059 80962.669068 113890.357305 156791.075702 209994.631167 280072.546218